METU EPE Reading Exam Practice 12-Natural Disasters/ ODTÜ İYS (Okuma Sınav Alıştırması)

Reading Practice: Text 12

A B2-C1 level interactive Reading exam practice on The Limits of Prediction in Natural Disasters for students preparing for METU EPE. Includes multiple-choice questions similar to the real test, with some variations for extra practice.

B2-C1 seviyesinde interaktif okuma sınav alıştırması. ODTU İYS ve diğer üniversitelerin hazırlık atlama sınavları için alıştırma çalışması. Gerçek sınav formatına uygun şekilde hazırlanmış çoktan seçmeli sorular içerir. Ekstra pratik olması için bazı değişiklikler olabilir.

Target: B2-C1 / EPE

A Despite significant advances in computational modeling, the precise prediction of natural disasters remains elusive. While meteorologists can now forecast hurricanes days in advance and seismologists can identify regions of seismic risk, the exact timing and magnitude of such events often defy calculation. This uncertainty is not merely technological; it reflects the inherent complexity of natural systems, where small variables can produce disproportionately large effects.

1. What is the main purpose of paragraph A?

B One challenge lies in the quality and completeness of available data. Geological records, for instance, are fragmentary by nature. Earthquakes leave uneven traces, and long periods of tectonic inactivity may obscure underlying stress accumulation. As a result, predictive models must rely on assumptions that simplify reality, sometimes at the cost of accuracy.

2. What does paragraph B suggest about geological data?

C Another limitation stems from the public’s interpretation of probabilistic forecasts. When scientists warn of a “30 percent chance” of a major event, the figure is often misunderstood as either reassurance or imminent danger. This misinterpretation can erode trust in scientific institutions, particularly when a predicted disaster fails to materialize.

3. Which idea is central to paragraph C?

D Ironically, improvements in prediction may intensify rather than alleviate public anxiety. Constant exposure to alerts, simulations, and worst-case scenarios can lead to “risk fatigue,” a condition in which individuals become desensitized and less responsive to genuine threats.

4. The term “risk fatigue” in paragraph D refers to _____________.

5. What can be inferred from paragraph D?

E For these reasons, many experts now emphasize resilience over prediction. Rather than attempting to forecast every disaster, governments are encouraged to invest in infrastructure, education, and emergency response systems that reduce vulnerability regardless of when or where a crisis occurs.

6. What solution is ultimately advocated in paragraph E?

7. What does the word "obscure" in paragraph B most likely mean?

8. What is the author’s overall tone in the passage?

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